Average price of home to increase 6.1 per cent this year: Royal LePage

Belmor MortgageUncategorized

Josh Dehaas, CTVNews.ca
Published Tuesday, July 14, 2015 6:05AM EDT
Last Updated Tuesday, July 14, 2015 11:29AM EDT
Home prices in Toronto and Vancouver are on pace to increase nearly 10 per cent in 2015 while Calgary’s are falling less than expected, meaning the nationwide average price should grow 6.1 per cent this year, according to a new forecast from Royal LePage.

The Royal LePage House Price Survey and Market Survey Forecast analyzed sales in 90 markets during the second quarter of this year and found that prices increased year-over-year by 7.5 per cent to $438,938 for a detached bungalow, 6.8 per cent to $471,002 for a standard two-storey house and 3.9 per cent to $268,583 for a standard condominium.

Royal LePage president Phil Soper said the second-quarter averages were heavily influenced by Toronto and Vancouver, which have “prosperous labour markets driving demand for housing that is in limited supply.”

In Toronto the average detached bungalow price increased 12.9 per cent to $712,622, the standard two-storey home price rose 11.6 per cent to $834,728 and the average condominium price rose 5.0 per cent to $402,901. Royal LePage predicts that will translate into a 9.6 per cent increase in 2015 prices over 2014 for Canada’s largest city.

In Vancouver, detached bungalows rose in price 12.6 per cent to $1,247,125, standard two-storey homes went up 13.6 per cent to $1,368,125 and condominiums increased 6.0 per cent to $521,425. Vancouver’s market will therefore grow 9.4 per cent in 2015, according to the report.

Calgary’s market was expected to take a big hit from declining oil prices that have led to job losses, but the year-over-year decline in Q2 has been relatively small, according to Soper.

Detached Calgary bungalows declined in price by 0.9 per cent to $496,689, standard two-storey homes dropped 3.1 per cent to $474,239 and condos increased 1.6 per cent to $291,022. Royal LePage predicts a 2.4 per cent decrease in prices there in 2015.

“We believe the oil-shock adjustment to home values in Calgary has for the most part already taken place,” Soper added.

In an interview on BNN’s The Street on Tuesday, Soper called Calgary Canada’s “twitchiest market,” with prices fluctuating constantly over the years.

Soper said people have been able to hold on to their home values in Calgary this year thanks to an increase in jobs in the city and a lowered vacancy rate.

Soper said the robust sales do not support an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada, which is expected to announce Wednesday whether it will drop its key rate from 0.75 per cent in an attempt to stimulate the economy.

“There is such a thing as too much of a good thing,” Soper said. “We just don’t need to throw additional fuel on those fires right now.”

Soper said the markets in Toronto and Vancouver make up a third of the housing activity in the country. For now, Soper said there are “very manageable price increases” in both markets. Soper cautioned that throwing in an external stimulus like an interest rate cut could lead to a “hard correction.”

High-value markets like those in B.C. and Ontario could sharply plunge, Soper warned.

“You’re stretching the limits of demand creation through pricing.”

Soper also singled out the strength of the home market in Hamilton, Ont., which experienced a 10.9 per cent increase in detached bungalow prices and a 13 per cent increase in two-storey home prices, according to the report.

Other cities saw smaller year-over-year changes.

Average prices for detached bungalows by city with year-over-year change:

Market Q2 2015 ($) Last Quarter ($) Q2 2014 ($) % Change
Halifax 298,167 297,667 292,000 2.10%
Charlottetown 174,000 174,000 173,000 0.60%
Fredericton 202,000 202,000 200,000 1.00%
Moncton 148,000 146,800 149,648 -1.10%
Saint John 171,800 172,845 179,150 -4.10%
St. John’s 295,333 300,100 298,000 -0.90%
Montreal 295,786 296,546 296,250 -0.20%
Ottawa 409,167 404,167 401,667 1.90%
Toronto 712,622 655,669 631,286 12.90%
Hamilton 266,580 272,187 240,416 10.90%
Winnipeg 316,732 304,534 311,015 1.80%
Regina 328,500 306,500 333,500 -1.50%
Saskatoon 363,500 365,750 375,000 -3.10%
Calgary 496,689 498,400 501,200 -0.90%
Edmonton 364,942 364,906 350,401 4.10%
Vancouver 1,247,125 1,174,509 1,107,290 12.60%
Victoria 484,000 474,800 467,000 3.60%
National 436,938 405,895 406,454 7.50%

Average prices for standard two-storey homes by city with year-over-year change:

Market Q2 2015 ($) Last Quarter ($) Q2 2014 ($) % Change
Halifax 368,850 372,250 362,250 1.80%
Charlottetown 207,000 207,000 205,000 1.00%
Fredericton 216,000 210,000 215,000 0.50%
Moncton 150,000 148,950 152,302 -1.50%
Saint John 242,500 252,250 252,038 -3.80%
St. John’s 401,833 407,667 403,667 -0.50%
Montreal 398,214 399,964 404,357 -1.50%
Ottawa 411,350 407,000 402,250 2.30%
Toronto 834,728 803,794 747,912 11.60%
Hamilton 351,183 329,816 310,757 13.00%
Winnipeg 340,866 342,880 336,037 1.40%
Regina 372,500 349,500 372,500 0.00%
Saskatoon 394,000 396,000 394,250 -0.10%
Calgary 474,239 480,656 489,589 -3.10%
Edmonton 384,250 391,378 372,112 3.30%
Vancouver 1,368,125 1,267,287 1,204,011 13.60%
Victoria 490,000 477,000 471,000 4.00%
National 471,002 451,463 440,972 6.80%

Average prices for standard condominiums by city with year-over-year change:

Market Q2 2015 ($) Last Quarter ($) Q2 2014 ($) % Change
Halifax 256,333 259,000 245,000 4.60%
Charlottetown 130,000 130,000 130,000 0.00%
Fredericton 145,000 154,000 145,000 0.00%
Moncton
Saint John
St. John’s 316,067 320,833 310,667 1.70%
Montreal 244,556 242,778 239,611 2.10%
Ottawa 257,467 262,167 257,500 0.00%
Toronto 402,901 395,584 383,562 5.00%
Hamilton
Winnipeg 205,969 195,905 209,023 -1.50%
Regina 214,500 216,500 217,500 -1.40%
Saskatoon 271,000 277,000 263,000 3.00%
Calgary 291,022 303,911 286,422 1.60%
Edmonton 246,812 231,093 236,429 4.40%
Vancouver 521,425 506,624 491,984 6.00%
Victoria 271,000 266,500 257,000 5.40%
National 268,583 261,782 258,501 3.90%

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